Africa now pays more to China than it receives, says ONE Data

Beijing – African countries are now sending more money to China in debt repayments than they are receiving in new loans, according to a report by Reuters citing new analysis from ONE Data.

The findings were released on January 27 in Johannesburg through the inaugural ONE Data report, which tracks global development finance flows. The analysis shows that China’s new lending to poorer countries has dropped sharply over the past decade, while repayments on existing loans have continued to rise, pushing many nations into net outflows.

Low and middle income countries, particularly in Africa, are the most affected. The report found that several African nations now transfer more funds to China in debt servicing than they receive in fresh financing from the world’s second largest economy.

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According to Reuters, this shift has taken place alongside a surge in net financing from multilateral institutions, which have become the main source of development finance globally once debt service outflows are accounted for. Multilateral lenders increased net financing by 124 percent over the past decade and now provide 56 percent of net flows, equivalent to 379 billion dollars between 2020 and 2024.

“The fact that there’s less lending coming in, but that previous lending from China still needs to be serviced, that’s the source of the outflows,” said David McNair, executive director at ONE Data, as quoted by Reuters.

Note: 2024 is the latest available data.
Source: ONE Data | Colleen Goko

Africa experienced the largest impact during the most recent period covered by the data. An inflow of 30 billion dollars between 2015 and 2019 shifted to an outflow of 22 billion dollars between 2020 and 2024.

The analysis does not include funding cuts that came into effect in 2025. Reuters reported that the closure of the United States Agency for International Development last year, together with reduced allocations from other developed countries, has already affected developing economies, with African nations bearing the brunt.

McNair said once 2025 data becomes available it is likely to show a sharp fall in Official Development Assistance. He described the trend as “a net negative” for African countries, saying governments are finding it harder to fund public services and investment, even as reduced reliance on external financing may increase domestic accountability.

The report also pointed to a broader decline in bilateral finance flows and private external debt, trends expected to worsen as aid cuts take hold from 2025 onwards.

At the same time, separate research cited by Reuters indicates that China’s overseas dealmaking rebounded in 2025. A study by the Griffith Asia Institute found that projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative reached a record 213.5 billion dollars last year, including 128.4 billion dollars in construction contracts and 85.2 billion dollars in investments, with Africa emerging as the largest recipient.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative, launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, is regarded as one of the most ambitious infrastructure programmes globally and has expanded from its original focus on East Asia and Europe to Africa, Oceania and Latin America, extending China’s economic and political influence over the past decade.