Ezulwini – The Eswatini Revenue Service’s ambitious target of collecting close to E18 billion in domestic taxes this financial year is headed for a collision with harsh economic realities on the ground, an independent economist has warned.
Thembinkhosi Dube said the target does not adequately account for the financial strain already weighing on households and businesses across the kingdom.
“That is why government’s ambitious tax collection target honestly does not look realistic. It does not sufficiently take into account the pressures households and businesses are already under,” Dube told the Eswatini Observer. 
The ERS collected E15.72 billion during the 2025/26 financial year. For the current 2026/27 financial year, the revenue authority is now chasing domestic collections approaching E18 billion as government moves to shore up revenues amid a tightening fiscal environment.
According to the Eswatini Observer, Dube said the warning signs were visible to anyone paying attention.
“If we are being honest, when you look at consumer spending, it is quite clear that there is an issue with the economy. There are all the signs that it is not healthy and economics, like science, will always show the signs,” he said.
The economist pointed to rising unemployment, weak consumer spending and growing financial pressure as factors that could ultimately force struggling local businesses to close.
“You do not even have to travel very far into South Africa to notice the difference in consumer activity and purchasing behaviour. Locally, it is becoming increasingly rare across many classes to see the latest consumer purchases and part of that comes from unemployment and weak earnings,” he argued.
The latest official Labour Force Survey puts the kingdom’s unemployment rate at 35.4% as of 2023, with more than half of economically active young people out of work. That figure places Eswatini among the countries with the highest unemployment rates in the world, ahead of South Africa, Djibouti and Botswana.
Dube said the problem ran deeper than the headline unemployment figure. Many formally employed Swazis were also failing to access what he described as “decent jobs.” The survey shows that roughly 68,000 employed locals earn below E2,000 a month. Only 32.8% of the working-age population was employed, while 56.2% of those with jobs operated within informal employment arrangements, often with unstable incomes and little protection.
His warning comes as government is also moving to increase domestic borrowing through the bond market. The Central Bank of Eswatini recently announced the issuance of E350 million worth of government bonds, with coupon rates ranging between 10% and 12.25%, maturing between 2029 and 2041. Dube said the scale of borrowing and the pricing structure reflected broader liquidity and fiscal pressures within the economy.
