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Trump threat rattles oil route

President Donald J. Trump arrives at UFC 327 and greets supporters during the high profile mixed martial arts event. President Donald J. Trump arrives at UFC 327 and greets supporters during the high profile mixed martial arts event.
President Donald J. Trump arrives at UFC 327 and greets supporters during the high profile mixed martial arts event.

Washington DC – United States President Donald Trump has announced plans to begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route, despite previously calling for it to be reopened without conditions.

Trump made the declaration on his Truth Social platform on Sunday morning, stating that the United States Navy would move to stop vessels entering or leaving the strait.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump posted. “At some point, we will reach an ‘ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT’ basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen.”

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The narrow waterway links the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world’s most strategic oil transit corridors. Any disruption has immediate global consequences, particularly for countries reliant on Middle Eastern crude supplies. Oil price volatility triggered by tensions in the region often filters down to smaller economies, including import dependent countries such as Eswatini, where fuel price adjustments have a direct impact on transport and food costs.

Iran recently restricted tanker traffic through the strait, a move that has strained global markets. However, the route is not fully sealed. Tehran has reportedly allowed selected tankers to pass in exchange for fees of up to two million dollars per vessel. At the same time, Iranian crude has continued flowing.

Data from analytics firm Kpler shows Iran exported an average of 1.85 million barrels of crude per day through March, roughly 100,000 barrels more per day than in the preceding three months. Much of that oil has moved through the same contested waterway.

Blocking the strait entirely would cut off a significant revenue stream for Iran’s government and military operations. Yet such a move carries risks. Preventing Iranian oil exports could send global oil prices sharply higher, a development that would also affect American consumers and international markets.

The United States Navy has until now allowed Iranian tankers to pass, partly to avoid further tightening supply. In March, Washington granted a temporary license permitting Iran to sell oil that had been stored on tankers at sea.

The United States has imposed and lifted sanctions on Iranian oil exports for decades. The Trump administration initially halted Iranian crude sales after withdrawing from the 2018 nuclear agreement. Last month, however, Trump dropped certain sanctions, freeing an estimated 140 million barrels of crude. According to the US Energy Information Administration, that volume is enough to meet global oil demand for about one and a half days.

The temporary waiver drew criticism because it enabled Iran to market oil despite ongoing hostilities. Iranian crude has reportedly been selling at several dollars above Brent crude, the global benchmark.

Faced with rising fuel prices at home, the administration has taken steps to ease pressure on markets while continuing its confrontation with Tehran. Measures have included coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves and the removal of sanctions on large volumes of Russian oil.

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